The last day of September is when the pricing texts start. Sellers who listed in July want to know if it is time to cut. Buyers want to know if the sellers are about to cave. Both are asking the same question from opposite sides, so I will answer it from both.
Here are the six questions I heard most this week, answered the way I answer them on the phone, with the numbers from our own posts behind them.
1. “Everybody says prices are falling. Are they?”
Not in the closed sales. Marion closed 567 houses from January through August this year, down 22% from 2025 and 24% from 2024. Over the same months the median closing price went from $184,000 in 2024 to $200,000 in 2025 to $211,200 this year.
A slower market is not automatically a cheaper one. Fewer sales does not mean lower prices, and anyone who has been waiting for volume to drag prices down has been waiting two years for the opposite.
2. “Then why does it feel like sellers are cutting?”
Because they are. In our own Marion listing feed, 38 of 70 houses have cut their asking price. Not one has raised it. The median cut is $13,000, about 4.4%.
The cuts are real, but they are not finished. The typical Marion house closed at $229,901 in August. The typical one for sale is asking $289,900, about 26% higher. A $13,000 cut closes roughly an eighth of that distance.
3. “So should I cut mine?”
Ask the house. Look at how long it has been listed and how many people have walked through it. If you are past the median days on market for your town and the showings are thin, the market has already told you something. Waiting another month rarely changes that answer, and every week you wait, the price you eventually take gets lower relative to the houses that cut first.
Price against the closings, not against the shelf. Comparing your house to the other unsold houses is how a whole street ends up sitting together. Comparing it to what actually closed is how you get a contract.
4. “Do builders cut like everybody else?”
No. Of 63 resale houses in that Marion group, 36 have cut, by a median of $15,000. Of 7 newly built houses, only 2 have, and by a median of $2,000. A builder carrying construction costs has less room to move than an owner who bought years ago. That is my reasoning, not something the data proves, and seven houses is a small group. But if you are a buyer, it tells you where the negotiating room is.
5. “When should I list?”
Five years of closings across nine towns say September is the busiest month, at about 483 closings in a typical year, and February is the quietest, at about 329. Work backward from that: roughly 60 days on the market plus 30 to 45 days to close puts the listing date for an August or September closing around May, not March.
If you list this fall, you are selling into the quiet half of the year. That does not mean do not list. It means the price has to be right the first week, not the fourth.
6. “I am a buyer. Is winter my window?”
It can be. January through March averages 338 closings a month against 468 from July through October. Fewer buyers are competing, and the houses still on the market in February have usually been there a while. The catch is being ready. Get your financing settled now, while nothing is urgent, so you can move the day the right house shows up.
What Greg Holthaus Makes of It
Most of the pricing mistakes I see are not big ones. They are a seller who waited three weeks too long to move, or a buyer who assumed a listing price was a sale price.
Sellers are already adjusting, just not fast enough to close the gap. If you are on either side of one of these houses, text me and I will tell you what I would do. I would rather talk you out of a bad move than sell you a good-looking one.
Ask Greg FAQ
Should I cut my asking price in Marion?
Why are Marion asking prices so far above what sells?
When is the best time to list a house in Southern Illinois?
Are new-construction houses cutting prices like resale houses?
Is winter a good time to buy a house?
Does a slower market mean lower prices?
💰 Pricing Starts With Real Numbers
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Who is Greg Holthaus?
Greg Holthaus is the Owner and Designated Managing Broker of Southern Illinois Realty Experts, with 25+ years in Southern Illinois real estate and more than 10,000 transactions closed. He leads a full-service operation — home sales, mortgage, title, and property management under one roof — with offices in Marion, Herrin, and Carbondale. Meet Greg ›
About the numbers: Marion closing counts and medians for 2024 through 2026 (January–August) and the August median closing price of $229,901 are from local MLS closed-sale data, as reported in our September 30 Marion report. Asking-price figures ($289,900 median, 105 houses) and the price-cut counts (38 of 70, median $13,000) come from active listings and our own listing feed as of that report; the feed reflects one data source’s coverage, not the complete local MLS. Seasonality figures (483 and 329 closings, 338 versus 468 monthly closings) are five-year averages across the nine towns we track, from our September 28 Market Monday. The May listing date is arithmetic, and the 30-to-45-day contract-to-close is a normal range, not something measured in this data. An honest limitation: asking prices are not sale prices, and seven newly built houses is a very small group. Town figures describe a market, not your house. Nothing here is an appraisal, a loan offer, a rate quote, or legal or financial advice. Southern Illinois Realty Experts is an Equal Housing Opportunity brokerage.