August closed-sale data is in for all nine towns we track, and it settles an argument we have been having with ourselves since spring.
Yes, 2026 is running behind 2025. Across the nine towns, 2,940 homes have closed through August versus 3,094 last year — a deficit of 154 sales. That is the number a headline would lead with.
But look at when those 154 went missing.
The Whole Down Year Happened Before March
| Month | 2026 closings | 2025 closings | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 281 | 352 | −71 |
| February | 270 | 339 | −69 |
| March | 311 | 334 | −23 |
| April | 353 | 342 | +11 |
| May | 399 | 383 | +16 |
| June | 411 | 413 | −2 |
| July | 450 | 461 | −11 |
| August | 465 | 470 | −5 |
January and February alone account for 140 of the 154 missing sales — 91% of the entire year-to-date gap. Add March and you have accounted for more than all of it.
Then look at the bottom half of that table. April through August — five consecutive months, 2,078 closings this year against 2,069 last year — is a net gain of nine sales. Not a recovery, not a boom. Dead even, five months running.
That is a materially different market than "the year is down 154 homes" suggests. The decline is real, it is measurable, and it stopped happening five months ago. What we have had since April is not a falling market. It is a flat one, and flat has been remarkably persistent.
The Gap Is Closing, Month by Month
One way to see it: track the year-to-date deficit as each new month lands, using the same seven towns each time so the comparison is honest.
| Through… | 2026 | 2025 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| June | 1,480 | 1,708 | −228 (−13.3%) |
| July | 1,843 | 2,062 | −219 (−10.6%) |
| August | 2,211 | 2,410 | −199 (−8.3%) |
The absolute gap shrinks and the percentage shrinks faster, because every additional month of parity dilutes a deficit that stopped growing in the first quarter. If April through August keeps repeating, this converges toward flat on its own without a single strong month.
August, Town by Town
August itself: 465 closings against 470 last August, with an estimated $78.2 million in volume versus $79.0 million — within a percent on both counts. Six of the nine towns posted a higher median than last August.
| Town | Aug 2026 sold | Aug 2025 sold | Aug 2026 median | vs last Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion | 101 | 108 | $229,901 | +8.4% |
| Carbondale | 67 | 89 | $148,936 | +6.4% |
| Mount Vernon | 73 | 59 | $157,432 | +0.9% |
| Herrin | 58 | 45 | $106,404 | −32.4% |
| Carterville | 35 | 56 | $247,643 | +8.6% |
| Murphysboro | 36 | 38 | $147,936 | +10.6% |
| Du Quoin | 20 | 14 | $115,950 | −11.7% |
| West Frankfort | 45 | 28 | $141,389 | −4.9% |
| Benton | 30 | 33 | $155,933 | +47.1% |
⚠️ Please do not read that last column too hard
Herrin is not down 32% and Benton is not up 47%. Those are single-month medians in towns that close 30 to 60 homes a month, and at that volume the median is decided by which particular houses happened to record that month.
Here is the proof, from the same data: over the last twelve months Herrin's monthly median has ranged from $97,500 to $174,900 — a 1.8× swing — and West Frankfort's from $70,250 to $147,000, a 2.1× swing. Nothing happened to those towns in between. Three expensive houses closing in the same four weeks moves a small-town median more than any market trend does.
Closing counts are the honest monthly number; medians only mean something over a year or more. That is why this post leads with the sales table and treats the median column as texture.
The Twelve-Month Picture
Zoom out to a full year and the earlier decline is still visible: 4,485 closings over the twelve months ending in August, against 4,861 in the twelve months before that — down 7.7%, with estimated volume of $670 million versus $731 million. That trailing window still contains last winter, which is where the damage was done.
Both things are true at once, and that is the whole point of looking at more than one window: the past year was down. The past five months were not.
💰 Five Months of a Flat Market
If you have been waiting for the market to settle down before you move, it already did — in April. Find out what you qualify for with Jarod Sanders, SIRE's in-house lender.Jarod Sanders · CrossCountry Mortgage · NMLS #2337228
Greg Holthaus Predicts
I said last month that Q4 would come in between 1,150 and 1,250 closings, and I am revising that up. Five straight months at parity is not a fluke any more, and if October through December runs at the pace April through August did, we land around 1,100 closings for the quarter against 1,099 last year — essentially a tie, and I would not be shocked by a little better.
What I would tell a seller: stop waiting for the market to stabilize. It stabilized in April. You have had five months of proof and you are burning daylight.
What I would tell a buyer: you are not going to time a bottom that already happened, and there is no sign of a wave of cheap inventory coming. Buy the house that works when you find it.
And the number I am watching next: January. This year's whole deficit was a winter story. If January 2027 comes in anywhere near January 2026's 281, we are genuinely past it. If it drops again, then last winter was not weather — it was the new shape of the year.
Southern Illinois Market FAQ — August 2026
Is the Southern Illinois housing market declining in 2026?
How many homes sold in Southern Illinois in August 2026?
Why do small-town median prices swing so much month to month?
What is the twelve-month trend for Southern Illinois home sales?
🏠 What Do These Numbers Mean for Your House?
Regional numbers are a backdrop, not an appraisal. Tell us your town and we will send you what actually sold near you — and what that means if you are thinking about listing.
📱 Got a Question About This Market? Text Greg.
Buying? Selling? Not sure where to start? Text Greg Holthaus directly — just tell him you saw his blog. He'll help you think through your decision, match you with the best broker for your situation, and point you in the right direction. He's open to a text any time.
Text Greg · 618.925.8654
Who is Greg Holthaus?
Greg Holthaus is the Owner and Designated Managing Broker of Southern Illinois Realty Experts, with 25+ years in Southern Illinois real estate and more than 10,000 transactions closed. He leads a full-service operation — home sales, mortgage, title, and property management under one roof — with offices in Marion, Herrin, and Carbondale. Meet Greg ›
About the numbers: Closed-sale counts and median sale prices come from local MLS closed-sale data for the ZIP codes covering Marion, Carbondale, Mount Vernon, Herrin, Carterville, Murphysboro, Du Quoin, West Frankfort and Benton, pulled September 14, 2026 and current through August 2026. Sales volume is an estimate computed as closings × median price, not a sum of actual sale prices, and is shown only for scale. Two data exclusions, both disclosed: Carbondale’s March–May 2026 medians ($30,000, $38,000 and $53,500 on 82, 93 and 98 closings) and Benton’s May 2025 median ($48,000 on 28 closings) are far below those towns’ own two-year norms and reflect batches of non-typical recordings rather than market movement; both towns are therefore excluded from the multi-month median and year-to-date comparisons. Their closing counts are unaffected and are included throughout, which is why the month-by-month tables cover all nine towns while the seven-town table is used for the year-to-date median trend. Prior months are revised by the source as additional sales record, so figures here may differ slightly from earlier posts. Regional figures describe a region, not your house — individual homes vary widely by condition, location and timing. Nothing here is an appraisal, a loan offer, or a rate quote. Southern Illinois Realty Experts is an Equal Housing Opportunity brokerage.