💰 Buying in the Quiet Months Only Works If You Are Ready
January through March is the thinnest part of this market, which is exactly why it favors a buyer — but only one who can move when the right house shows up. Get the financing settled now, while nothing is urgent. Free, no-pressure pre-qualification with Jarod Sanders, SIRE’s in-house lender.Jarod Sanders · CrossCountry Mortgage · NMLS #2337228
Everyone knows spring is selling season. It is the thing you hear at every kitchen table in February: wait until spring.
We went and checked. Five years of closed sales across all nine towns we track — 60 months, 24,531 closings — and spring is not the peak. It is not close to the peak.
The Year, Month by Month
Three different measures, one shape. Here is every calendar month, averaged across five years and nine towns.
| Month | Homes closed typical year, all 9 towns | Median days on market | Median sale price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 349 | 70.5 | $120,000 |
| Feb | 329 | 74.0 | $110,000 |
| Mar | 338 | 75.0 | $117,375 |
| Apr | 373 | 68.5 | $115,000 |
| May | 422 | 64.0 | $122,450 |
| Jun | 433 | 60.0 | $127,500 |
| Jul | 457 | 60.0 | $134,950 |
| Aug | 476 | 59.5 | $135,000 |
| Sep | 483 | 62.0 | $124,975 |
| Oct | 456 | 62.0 | $121,000 |
| Nov | 404 | 63.0 | $116,250 |
| Dec | 387 | 68.0 | $120,000 |
Local MLS closed-sale data for the nine towns, September 2021 through August 2026 — five years, 60 months, 24,531 closings. Shaded rows are July through October. Days on market and sale price are the median across all town-months in that calendar month; seven town-months were excluded from the price column only (see the note at the bottom).
The busiest closing month in Southern Illinois is September, at about 483 closings across the nine towns in a typical year. The quietest is February, at about 329. Homes that close in August have been on the market a median of 59.5 days; homes that close in March, 75 — fifteen and a half days longer, a 26% difference.
Put July through October against January through March and the region closes 1.84 times as many houses in the busy stretch. That is not a subtle seasonal lean. That is most of the year’s work happening in four months.
Which Means the Advice Is Wrong by About Three Months
Here is the part that actually changes what you do, and it is just arithmetic.
Those are closing months, not listing months. A sale that closes in August went under contract earlier, and was listed earlier still. Work it backward:
📅 Counting Backward From an August Close
- 60 days — the median time on market for a home that closes in August.
- 30 to 45 days — a normal contract-to-close on a financed purchase.
- = about 90 to 105 days between going on the market and handing over keys.
Which puts the listing date in early May. To close in September, it is May or early June.
So the useful version of “list in spring” is not March. It is May. List in March and you are aiming at a June close, which is real but on the front slope. List in May and you land in the four months when this region does most of its business.
One honest note on that arithmetic: the 30-to-45-day contract-to-close is a normal range for a financed sale, not something measured in this data. The listing data tells us how long homes sat before going under contract; it does not tell us how long the closings took. Treat the May answer as roughly right, not precisely right.
If You Are Thinking About Listing This Fall
It is September 28. Say you list this week.
At the January–March median of 74 days on the market, a house listed now goes under contract around the turn of the year and closes in February — the thinnest month of the year. Fewest closings of any month, the lowest median price of any month, and a time-on-market figure beaten only by March.
We are not going to tell you not to list. People move for jobs, for family, for a dozen reasons that do not care what the table says, and a house that is genuinely ready in October beats a house that is not ready in May. Plenty of the listings that sit through a winter are sitting on condition and price rather than on the calendar, and the calendar gets blamed for both.
But go in with your eyes open. If you list into the fall you are selling into the quiet half of the year, the buyer pool is smaller, and the price needs to be right the first week rather than the fourth. That is a strategy question worth having before the sign goes in the yard, not after sixty days of nothing.
The Same Fact, From the Buyer’s Side
Everything above is bad news for a seller in October and good news for a buyer in January.
January through March averages 338 closings a month across the nine towns against 468 in July through October. Fewer houses trade, but fewer buyers are out there competing for them, and the homes that are still listed in February have usually been listed a while. A post on this blog last week made the point that fall is not the dead zone — January through March is. These are those numbers.
If you can buy in the first quarter, you are shopping when almost nobody else is. That is worth more than most of what gets written about timing the market.
Where This Does Not Hold
On closings, it holds everywhere. All nine towns peak in August, September or October, and all nine bottom out in January, February or March. Nine for nine, five years running, is about as consistent as small-town real estate data gets.
On time-on-market, it holds in seven of nine — and we are going to name the two where it does not.
| Town | Closings Jul–Oct | Closings Jan–Mar | Ratio | Peak month | Days on market busy vs quiet season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Du Quoin | 399 | 183 | 2.18× | Aug | +12.0 days |
| Carbondale | 1,436 | 661 | 2.17× | Sep | 19.0 days faster |
| Murphysboro | 877 | 425 | 2.06× | Aug | 20.5 days faster |
| Carterville | 874 | 437 | 2.00× | Sep | 16.8 days faster |
| Marion | 2,149 | 1,203 | 1.79× | Oct | 11.8 days faster |
| Mount Vernon | 1,285 | 726 | 1.77× | Sep | +9.0 days |
| West Frankfort | 673 | 397 | 1.70× | Aug | 9.0 days faster |
| Herrin | 1,016 | 628 | 1.62× | Sep | 16.5 days faster |
| Benton | 653 | 417 | 1.57× | Oct | 14.7 days faster |
Five years of closings per town, sorted by how lopsided the year is. The last column compares the median days on market for homes closing July–October against those closing January–March.
Du Quoin and Mount Vernon run the other way, with homes closing in the busy season taking 12 and 9 days longer than those closing in the quiet season. We do not have an explanation we would stand behind. Du Quoin is the smallest sample on the board and its monthly medians swing hard, so noise is a live possibility there. Mount Vernon is not small, so that one is more interesting and we will keep watching it.
That is the honest state of it: the volume pattern is universal, the speed pattern is strong but not unanimous, and we would rather print the two exceptions than round them off.
One Number Not to Misread
⚠️ The Price Column Is Not a Valuation
August’s median sale price across these towns is $135,000 and February’s is $110,000 — a 23% gap. That does not mean your house is worth 23% more in August.
What sells changes with the season. Family-sized homes cluster around the school calendar; the winter market skews toward smaller, cheaper and investor-owned property. A different mix of houses produces a different median without any individual house changing value at all.
The closing counts and the days-on-market figures are measuring activity, and they mean what they look like they mean. The price column is measuring what kind of house traded at least as much as it is measuring price. Do not take it to the bank, and be suspicious of anyone who does.
💬 Greg Holthaus Predicts
“The one that surprises people is September, not June. Our season runs late here compared to what you read nationally, and I think that is the school calendar plus how much of our buyer pool is coming from somewhere else — they move after a school year ends, not before. What I would watch this year is whether the fall stays strong. September ended with the 30-year average crossing 7% for the first time in twenty months. If October closings hold up anyway, that tells you this market is being driven by people who have to move rather than people shopping a rate. That has been true here for two years and I do not see it changing.”
📅 When Should Your House Go On the Market?
The calendar is one input and it is not the biggest one. A house that is ready in October beats a house that is not ready in May, and a job transfer does not wait for a table. Tell us your town and roughly when you are thinking, and a SIRE broker will walk through the timing on your actual house.
The Short Version
- September closes the most houses in Southern Illinois. February closes the fewest.
- July through October does 1.84× the volume of January through March, and that holds in all nine towns.
- To close in that window you list around May — roughly three months earlier, because 60 days on the market plus a month to close is three months.
- Listing now aims at a February close. Not a reason to wait if you need to move, but a reason to price it right in week one.
- If you are buying, the quiet quarter is your quarter.
- The seasonal price gap is a mix effect, not a valuation. Do not read it as what your house is worth.
📱 Got a Question About This Market? Text Greg.
Buying? Selling? Not sure where to start? Text Greg Holthaus directly — just tell him you saw his blog. He'll help you think through your decision, match you with the best broker for your situation, and point you in the right direction. He's open to a text any time.
Text Greg · 618.925.8654
Who is Greg Holthaus?
Greg Holthaus is the Owner and Designated Managing Broker of Southern Illinois Realty Experts, with 25+ years in Southern Illinois real estate and more than 10,000 transactions closed. He leads a full-service operation — home sales, mortgage, title, and property management under one roof — with offices in Marion, Herrin, and Carbondale. Meet Greg ›
About the numbers: Closing counts, median sale prices and median days on market are from local MLS closed-sale data for the ZIP codes covering Marion, Carbondale, Mount Vernon, Herrin, Carterville, Murphysboro, Du Quoin, West Frankfort and Benton, pulled September 28, 2026 and covering September 2021 through August 2026 — 60 complete months and 24,531 closings. August 2026 is the most recent complete month; September data typically posts in the second week of the following month. Monthly figures are aggregated by calendar month across all five years: the closing column is the average number of closings across the nine towns in a typical year, and the days-on-market and price columns are the median across all town-months falling in that calendar month. Seven town-months were excluded from the PRICE column only, each having recorded a median under 55% of its town’s trailing-24-month median: Carbondale March, April and May 2026; Benton May 2025; and Du Quoin September and October 2021 and November 2023. These look like recording batches or very thin months rather than market moves. Their closing COUNTS are included everywhere — a recording batch distorts prices, not the number of sales — and excluding them did not create the seasonal price pattern, which is the same with and without them. Days on market measures list date to contract, not to closing. The 30-to-45-day contract-to-close figure used in the backward calculation is a normal range for a financed purchase, not a figure measured in this data, so the “list in May” answer is approximate. The seasonal price difference substantially reflects a changing mix of homes sold rather than a change in what any individual home is worth, and should not be used as a valuation. Closed-sale figures are revised as late sales record, so recent months may shift. Nothing here is an appraisal, a loan offer, or a rate quote. Southern Illinois Realty Experts is an Equal Housing Opportunity brokerage.